If China attacks Taiwan, should the US/UN enter the fray?

The thought of the US or anyone else going to war with China terrifies me. Economic sanctions seem like the logical alternative, but if we were willing to do that we've had plenty of reasons to do so before now. Our acquiescence to China in not recognizing a democratic Taiwan is sufficient indication of that. I hate to admit it, and it would be a sad thing indeed, but I kind of hope Taiwan just caves in. If they don't, there are going to be an awful lot of dead people.

It depends entirely on what is meant by stepping in. I definitely think the UN should be involved in defending Taiwan, but I'm not sure to what extent I would support that.

natsim: You're right, I should have defined that term better. By stepping in I mean sending troops to the region, either on the ground or in the air.

I don't entirely see what it is that the US gets out of good trade relations with China.

That was very well summarized for a complex situation! (The only thing I might have wanted more clarification on would have been the "Taiwan has 'historically' been part of China" part- China has a profoundly long history, how much of that included the area in debate? But none the less, still, very well summarized).

I have two thoughts on this- one is my more conventional response, what I would have thought, across the board, about a year ago, and one which incorporates a new idea I'm trying to grasp about nations. My first thought is that if it's a "renegade providence" then that means it doesn't want to be part of China. Whether it is a rightful providence on its own, or whether it is breaking away from its nation illegally, whichever it is, it still wants to be independent, so no good will come of forcing it to be part of a larger nation. The newer understanding is that probably a good number of people who live there just want to be left alone. They probably want to run their lives with minimal upheaval, avoid being shot at, raise their families and so forth. A very small minority probably own a huge percentage of the property, and the few members of 'government in exile' probably have more to loose than anyone else in the deal. SO, keeping all that in mind, I would say a referendum, like the one in East Timor - minus all the slaughter - should be held, over-seen by an international peace keeping body such as the UN, but only to ensure a free and open ballot. Then, a 2/3rds majority to join People's Republic of China takes it, and failing a 2/3rds majority in favor of change, it stays under its current ruling body, and the US should then recognize it as such. It's not reasonable to say that it should "go back to" the People's Republic, because even when it was Chinese, it was not Communist (if I understand this correctly) so it would not be a "return" but a change, which I think should be decided by a great percentage of the people.

Oh, and I think trade sanctions are right out- they hurt most the people who have the least say in the matter, and seem to be unilaterally ineffective for this broad an issue. I would thing trade sanctions would be good for something more contained and localized, such as refusing to buy from a company or a country with a poor human-rights record. That's something that can be changed internally without significantly losing face, and therefore more appropriate for those kinds of efforts.

Interference could mean WW3 I´m afraid.
And I really think China gains nothing with an economic boycott from the western countries. So my guess is China will be clever enough not to attack Taiwan.

phi: China has 1,1 billion consumers. Now think again why the US is so eager about good trade relations with China. And why they still boycott Cuba, although the Cuban government is no worse than the Chinese.

vos: yes, but even China apologists figure US-China trade as lopsided by three to one, and the trade deficit at over $50 billion a year.

phi: It´s a growing market. They are like 50 years behind us, so they´ll all want a fridge, tv, radio, CD´s, etc, etc. They will start spending soon!

and the Cuban boycott is really more a byproduct of American electoral politics, which was designed, and still functions, to allow small but dedicated interest groups to wield disproportionate political power through all-or-nothing state-by-state Presidential elections.

vos: the US doesn't make most of those things any more.

phi: Well, not the high quality stuff, no!

This whole thing just scares me. We are definately in a very hard place with regards to this issue. Our relations with China are at an all time low, and yet, I believe we support the Taiwanese government in principle as a sovereign state (or should be). To support China is to tell Taiwan, and the world, that we don't believe what we preach. Yet, to support Taiwan, might surely start another cold war; between the US and China. I hadn't thought of the option listed above, having the UN support Taiwan, but not led by the US. We lead so many UN actions, that it almost seems natural. Personally, I think if that option can be managed, it will be the best for us, but from what I have seen, the UN rarely goes to action on its own without significant US involvement and leadership.

Economic sanctions? I support the principle as a less violent means to coerce governments against unjust action. But do they really work? I've never been convinced. Sadly..

Good survey question.

tcb: Especially since the UN does not recognize Taiwan...

US = big smoking crater

topper: I agree that the idea of a referendum sounds appealing, but keep in mind that if Taiwan does not agree to reunify with China in the relatively near future, they have vowed to attack. It kind of sours the whole idea of a referendum...if I understand your concept correctly, that is.

tcb: We (meaning the US government) do not officially support Taiwan, and that's a big part of the problem. We have refused to recognize their sovereignty as a condition of doing trade with China. As a people we may support their right to independence and democracy, but as a nation we do not.

tcb: economic sanctions worked in the elimination of apartheid in South Africa.

I don't think anyone other than China and Taiwan should be involved. This country has its own issues.

Even though I hardly know anything about it, but I do know that getting involved in stuff like that has gotten our country in trouble before, and it caused death to thousands.

I believe that Taiwan should remain independent. While I don't normally believe in the US policing the world, I think that in this case it would be our responsibility to intervene, as we are the ones who helped Taiwan set itself up.

mary, I'm just curious, do you, in general, feel that the US should avoid border conflicts in other regions? A lot of people feel that the UN (with the aid of the US) should have gotten into East Timor earlier, while a lot of other people feel that they should never have gone in at all. Since you expressed a strong opinion on staying out of Taiwan, I was wondering how you feel in general on the issue. Do you mind my asking? I find the whole issue tricky and confusing.

Basically, we were born into this insecure world with plenty of problems. We can't fix these things. Death by war is not good, it is not right, and it doesn't feel good to those effected by it, so why should any country voluntarily do something like this when the world is just going to go on as it always has no matter how many people are killed.
My views are nothing more than that, there is nothing anyone can do about all these problems, well, there is absolutely nothing I can do about it myself so there is no need for me to worry.
This is so off track from the question though. If some country wants to cause even more difficulty to their already difficult and insecure life, then so be it, why join in on the whole process?

I don't want to be misunderstood though. I do feel that it was necessary for us to step in against the Nazis, but the whole Taiwan thing doesn't come close to that though.
Overall I just have a problem with the whole main manner of this world. Whatever it is we are fighting for, it couldn't be good as far as I see it. Fighting for stuff we don't want taken from us in the whole process, I don't know. Like fighting for oil, it is all so selfish and so destructive.
I don't know maybe I just had too many drugs back in the day.

It is in the best interest of the U.S. to see that Taiwan remains an independent, capitalist country. We have already lost Hong Kong to the Chinese we can't afford to lose another capitalist strong-hold. In addition, it is time for the U.S. to stand up against China and put a stop to China's human rights violations.

Flair: Even if the price for keeping Taiwan independent is WW3? I'm not so sure...

Flair - I think China's taking back Hong Kong may eventually affect China more than it affects Hong Kong.

If China decided to invade, there is no way that they could be defeated by the US or UN. Further taking into consideration the amount of nuclear weapons stock piled by the US & China, direct conflict is a bad idea. I think a complete world embargo would get the point across better.

The US is always on a power trip. It needs to back down and get out of everyone's business

China gaining control of Taiwan is like a bad merger.

I do think that we're partly responsible for the situation Taiwan is currently in. That being said, it's unfortunate that public opinion in China seems to be driving their leadership to work towards an immediate reunification with Taiwan at a time when similarities between the two countries are finally growing. Given a decade or two, I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan would willingly rejoin China, Hong Kong fashion. But if the Chinese press the issue, they'll generate a lot of bad blood which will be difficult to overcome.

joachim: erm... unless my grip on reality is weaker than I thought Hong Kong didn't "willingly rejoin China" - they had no choice in the matter really. Britain's time was up, so it defaulted back to China.

China has been a big bully for too long and I think we should step in and kick there pompous butts!

A ex-coworker of mine was from Taiwan. I got a chance to talk to him about it a little. He said that within Taiwan there is a lot of mixed feeling. The Japanese occupation, though harsh brought a lot of progress and order to Taiwan. It helped them become an industrialized region. When the Japanese left and the Nationalists came in, things got all screwed up for a while. The Nationalists were backwards compared to what the native Taiwanese had learned from the Japanese. But the Taiwanese had to live with them because they were essentially occupied by them. So, to many native Taiwanese, the Nationalists (though Chinese and thus historically more connected) were more annoying than the Japanese. ...and this is likely true of the main-land Chinese/Communists. They are backwards compared to Taiwan's modern ways. Taiwan has learned how annoying that can be, and they'd rather not have to go through that again.